북한 핵정책과 테러리즘 연계성에 관한 연구

Abstract

The American professor Paul Kennedy once predicted with regard to collapse of the bipolar system and future changes, “What has approached us is not a new international order but a world accompanied by pain and disintegration. Our mankind should be prepared to solve the complicated problems arising in the 21st century. If we should fail to solve the problems, we would suffer from a formidable tragedy.” If North Korea's policy of developing the nuclear weapons should be followed by many other nations in the world, while the Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) including the nuclear weapons should be available for terrorism, the human civilization would face the worst crisis unprecedented in the history. While in-depth researches into the nuclear terrorism have still to be conducted on a full scale, this study approached North Korea's nuclear weapon development policy from the perspective that it emerges as a new threat to the future of the international community and the Korean peninsula. Particularly, this study focused on the fact that South Korea or the only divided nation in the world is exposed defenselessly to the nuclear threat in view of the security environment and her geo-political position surrounded by the world powers. Furthermore, this study examined the terrorism spreading into the Asia and Pacific region, and thereby, attempted to make it clear that ‘South Korea is no longer a safe zone from terrorism.’ North Korea's nuclear weapon development draws attention from the world. So, unless it should be checked, the non-proliferation system would hardly be maintained. The international community including the United States began to make efforts to find a solution to North Korea's nuclear problem since March, 1993 when North Korea declared that she would withdraw from NPT. Still, North Korea is developing the nuclear weapons, while the prospect for its solution is still dim. Even worse, North Korea pronounced that 2012 would be a year for construction of a powerful North Korea. Thus, North Korea's strategy of ‘securing a nuclear deterrence’ seems to be even dogmatic, turning her back to the international reactions. Hence, North Korea is being stamped by the international community as ‘failed nation’ or ‘rogue nation.’ If North Korea's nuclear issue should not be resolved only to be worsened, it would be a serious threat to not only the Korean peninsula but also the world at large. At this moment when North Korea has tested the nuclear bombs twice, North Korea is perceived to own the nuclear weapons, threatening the security of South Korea and Northeast Asia. And in the military terms, South Korea is aware desperately that she should be prepared for the possibility of North Korea's tactical use of the nuclear weapons. How North Korea would make use of her nuclear weapons is the serious and urgent agenda facing South Korea. The scope of this study was limited to the possibility of North Korea's nuclear terrorism because the threats of North Korea's nuclear weapon development are much diversified. Particularly, this study reviewed the process of North Korea's nuclear weapon development and thereby, diagnosed her strategic goals and nuclear threats. In this context, the Korean peninsula was set as the target of the traditional terrorism (internal threat), while the international community was set as the target of the transnational terrorism. First of all, the possibility of the traditional terrorism is attributable to North Korea's anti-South military strategy for communization of the Korean peninsula. Namely, North Korea's traditional terrorism has been reinforced by her nuclear weapons in both terms of means and methods to pose an internal threat to the Korean peninsula or create an extreme panic situation for South Korea. On the other hand, the possibility of the transnational terrorism is equated with the possibility that North Korea's current nuclear weapon development capacity would be transferred to third terrorist nations or groups at this moment when the international community needs to be prepared for the possibility of a nuclear terrorism, learning a lesson from September 11 terrorism. Namely, nuclear weapons might be transferred to the terrorist groups hostile to the United States or her allies or such rogue nations as North Korea who might use a nuclear terrorism. Then, the target of the nuclear terrorism would be the international community. Hence, the counter strategies explored by this study to check North Korea's traditional terrorism and transnational nuclear terrorism focused on cultivation of an anti-terrorism tactical capacity and construction of an international cooperative relation for denuclearization and non-proliferation. This study consists of the following chapters. After introduction of the study in the first chapter, nature and threat of the nuclear weapons spreading across the national borders are discussed in the second chapter “Overview of the Non-Proliferation,” while the theoretical concepts of non-proliferation are defined. The third chapter [North Korea's Nuclear Weapon Development Policy and Perspective into Her Terrorism] divides the nuclear weapon development into 4 stages and thereby, describes the process of the nuclear weapon development and the strategic goals for a nuclear state. Then, this chapter diagnoses North Korea's current nuclear weapon development capacity and analyzes her missile threats. In particular, this chapter suggests the characteristics of terrorism with specific cases, and then, examines internal and external nuclear threats from North Korea. The fourth chapter [Counter Strategies checking North Korea's Nuclear Terrorism] suggests the counter strategies available to four powers against the ‘clear and present threat’ to not only the Korean peninsula but also the Northeast Asia. In addition, this chapter emphasizes that the anti-terrorism tactical capacity of South Korea should be reinforced. In order to resolve North Korea's nuclear issue fundamentally and exclude any possibility of North Korea's nuclear terrorism, this chapter suggests that Korea-US alliance should be strengthened for denuclearization and non-proliferation, while the international non-proliferation regime needs to be reinforced. The fifth chapter [Conclusion] sums up the results of the study. Now, the time has passed that we are engaged in the fundamental question “Is North Korea really armed with the nuclear weapons?” Instead, we should continue to be concerned about North Korea's nuclear capacity, while analyzing and discussing strategically whether North Korea would use her nuclear weapons when a crisis rises up and if so when and how she would use them. Especially, we need to analyze and research into various scenarios about the unique conditions facing North Korea. Such discussions would be a fertilizer for creation of the conditions for checking North Korea's use of nuclear weapons and ultimately urging her to dismantle her nuclear weapons. Although it is agreed in general that North Korea would not be likely to rely on the nuclear terrorism, we should be cautious of the possibility that North Korea's nuclear weapons might turn into an offensive weapon.