상호저축은행의 이익관리에 관한 연구

Abstract

Since the bull real estate market in 2000s, many financial institutions have vigorously developed Project Financing (PF) on security of expected real estate value. These institutions, however, are stumbling in the midst of the prolonged recession of real estate market, severely affected from the world economic crisis in year 2008. Further, the mighty amount of PF loan is in very shaky situation due to the series of the collapses of the construction companies and the real estate development firms. The harsher challenge overhangs the small Mutual Savings Banks (MSBs), 15% of whose assets are struggling in the PF loan swamp. Why most of the MSBs have to suffer tougher winter than other financial institutions? Is there any way to find a co-relation between business performance and profit management? My research is motivated by searching for the answers to these questions.

I formulate a regression equation with variables from proved prior researches. In addition, I perform the extra regression analysis on individual group to figure out differences on each group's profit management. Statistical Sample of the research is all 106 MSBs operating in Korea in June, 2009 and I exam three years of financial statements of the samples from year 2007.

In general, the profit management in financial institution can be researched with three areas, Income smoothing, Capital management, and cooperate tax management. This research mainly focus on Income smoothing and Capital management only. In the result of regression analysis concerned on profit flexibility in MSBs, the executives in MSBs tend to manage the profit based on Nondiscretionary Income which shows the pre-income adjustment outcome of the year. Samples can be divided into two groups. One has positive(+) Nondiscretionary Income and the other has negative(-) one. In the regression analysis on negative group, the result of the analysis produce meaningful regression value between Allowance for Doubtful Account and Nondiscretionary Excessive Income but on the positive group. the result is not very meaningful. Hence, the MSBs in the negaitive group are trying to control their income with Allowance for Doubtful Account. In the regression analysis on each regional groups, divided into Metro Seoul, Busan and other region, the result produce the meaningful explanatory variables, that is, there's no regional difference on income management. Further, the analysis on the big and small group divided based on asset size, MSBs in the big group tend to perform income management more actively.

In the regression analysis on asset management in MSBs, result produce very meaningful regression value between dependent variable, Allowance for Doubtful Account and validation variable, Capital Adequacy Ratio. This result proves that MSBs are trying to manage Capitial Adequacy Ratio with manipulating Allowance for Doubtful Account. Like the research result on the profit flexibility, the research outcome produce meaningful regression values only in variables of Credit without profit and basic Allowance for Doubtful Account. In addition, I divide the sample into two groups based on standard BIS ratio, 8%. In the group having a higher BIS ratio than standard one, the outcome of the regression analysis shows that this group more likely manage its asset using Allowance for Doubtful Account than lower group. Further, in the regression analysis on regional and asset size differences, there are meaningful differences between the regional groups but in the asset size wise, there are no meaningful differences.

This research could provide some valuable reference to the financial and bank supervisory authorities. When the authorities supervise and monitor MSBs, they should consider very important fact that executives in the MSBs persue profit flexibility and capital management with manipulating Allowance for Doubtful Account which is very discretionary fund. With this careful consideration, supervisory authorities could evaluate the business performance of the MSBs more accurate way. Although I try to pursue analysis in various aspects, contents of the validation are very simple and the result of the research is very limit to the scope of other conventional researches.