不動産景氣와 株式景氣의 相互關聯性에 관한 硏究

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to predict the fluctuations of the financial or real asset prices at the time when our nation's economy exits from its depression to recover itself slowly, and thereby, provide for some information useful to ordinary investors' better understanding of the markets. For this purpose, the prices of the stocks representing the financial assets and the real estates representing the real assets were sampled to review how their prices would change a priori or posterior being affected by the economic cycle. In general, it is known that the real estate prices are affected posterior by the real asset and stock prices. In other words, stock market tends to be activated before real asset market and then, real asset market will be activated later, and the money will flow into the real estate market much later. Real estate prices are affected by supply and demand in the real estate market, which in turn is affected complicatedly by real asset market, people's value system and real estate policies. The real asset markets which had been greatly shrunk since the 4th quarter of 1997 due to the foreign exchange crisis began to recover rapidly since early 1999 owing to drastic deregulations and decreased dependency of the businesses on government policies as well as more transparent criteria for various economic activities. Thus, the civil consumption which decreased drastically 11.4% in 1998 increased 10.3% in 1999. Recently, real estate market and stock market have been the arena for short-term speculations rather than play roles of shorter-term a priori indices. However, these markets are affected not by any single variable but by combination of variables, which means that it may be very difficult for investors to predict the fluctuations of real estate and stock prices. For the period from 1990 to 1997 just before the foreign exchange crisis, stock prices began to rise 6 months before an economic upswing, and 6 months later, real estate prices began to show signs of rising. In short, stock prices play a priori economic prediction role, while real estate prices play a posterior economic prediction role, and therefore, they move very slowly. Since the foreign exchange crisis, however, the apartment house market has moved in the same direction as the real asset market; when real asset market recovered, apartment house market recovered, and when the former market was depressed, the latter market was depressed, too. Such data suggest that we can afford to predict the apartment house prices based on our prediction of the real asset prices. What is important above all is the assumption that apartment house prices tend to be affected by their basic market values. Since the fourth quarter of 2002, the apartment house prices have risen sharply but now, they remain on a plateau. Next year, the interest will probably rise, while more real estates will be supplied. In other words, the real estate prices would not much rise. Since the stock prices began to fall since the first quarter of 2002 and they are expected to rise due to an economic upswing in the first half of next year (the stock prices began to rise slowly since September, 2002), it may be concluded carefully that the stock prices affect the real estate prices posterior. However, unlike for the period before the IMF bailout program, the stock prices will change within the shorter period than 6 months before the real asset market change, and likewise, the real estate market will change within the shorter period than a year after the real asset market change. Anyway, as the economic conditions change, real estate and stock markets are mutually complementary, which means that only if real estate market is recovered, stock market will be recovered.