住宅價格指數와 關聯된 세 가지 에세이

Abstract

This study first estimated the transaction-based sales price index with SPAR Index Model, which is a model of alternative transaction-based sales price indices, with paying attention to problems about repeat sale price index model. And, it analyzed the smoothing level in The KB Housing Purchase Price Index by using the estimated SPAR index and confidence interval of The SPAR Index, and proposed 'true index,' which wasn't smoothed. Finally, it analyzed relationship between price and transaction volume by using The SPAR index based on the transaction-based sales price. In Chapter 2 of this study, the alternative transaction-based sales price index, which becomes the most base in analysis, was estimated by using SPAR index model targeting 4 Gus in South-East region of Seoul. As a result of presumption, The SPAR index was indicated to be large in fluctuation compared to The KB Housing Purchase Price Index, and to move faster by time difference in 1~2 lag . The big difference wasn't indicated between 'The Transaction-based Sales Price Indices For the Apartment Housing Market' by MLTM(Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs) and the SPAR index, by this study. However, in the second half of 2008 in which the fluctuation in apartment price was big, a gap was indicated between the SPAR index and the Transaction-based Sales Price Indices For the Apartment Housing Market. In Chapter 3 of this study, it was analyzed the smoothing level of 'the KB Housing Purchase Price Index' with the Signal-Noise ratio model and the Partial Adjustments model by using the SPAR Index and confidence interval of the SPAR index. First of all, as a result of Cross Correlation Analysis, the KB Housing Purchase Price Index was indicated to move slower by time difference in 1 lag compared to the SPAR index. As a result of analyzing the smoothing level, Gangnam-gu was indicated to be approximate to the real market value only when the fluctuation of the KB Housing Purchase Price Index should be amplified by about 325.59%. And it was indicated to be approximate to a change in real market value only when being amplified, respectively, 293.49% for Seocho-gu, 247.21% for Songpa-gu, and 243.77% for Gangdong-gu. Accordingly, participants in house market need to move more fast by about time difference in 1 lag than a change in real market price as for the KB Housing Purchase Price Index when using the KB Housing Purchase Price Index as the index of judging the present status of house market, and to use by considering that the fluctuation was underestimated by about 243%~325%. Finally in Chapter 4 of this study, it was verified the relationship between transaction volume and price by using SPAR index, which was estimated in Chapter 2. As a result of analysis, the positive correlation was indicated between transaction volume and price. And transaction volume was indicated to have influence on price. rather than having mutual influence with having time difference. The phenomenon of moving with the same time difference will be able to be explained with the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis or the Prospect Theory. However, this study has the following limitations. First, the SPAR index, which was estimated in this study, is a transaction-based sales price index that is estimated with the transaction-based sales price ratio compared with appraisal price. Accordingly, to estimate SPAR index, the appraisal price in the transaction-based case is necessary. This study estimated the SPAR index by having the declared value as Appraisal Price. However, the currently transaction-based sales price data set has only information about apartment complex, floor, area, transaction price, and transaction date. Thus, it used the declared value of apartment, which is consistent with the limited information, as appraisal price. Second, this study carried out analysis by putting limitation of the analytical region on South-East zone of Seoul. Therefore, there is limitation in judging the whole market with the analytical results. Accordingly, there is necessity for analyzing by expanding district hereafter. Third, the difference between the Repeat Sale Price Index by MLTM and the SPAR Index by the study in the second half of 2008 was analyzed. For a reason that this difference was shown, this study raised possibility of sample selection error in the Repeat Sale Price Index. However, the empirical analysis on this failed to be performed. Fourth, this study did put the limitation of analytical period on 48 months from January of 2006. Due to relatively short time series, there is limitation in judging long-term relationship between transaction volume and price. Accordingly, there is necessity for carrying out additional analysis given being accumulated more time series. Fifth, this study empirically analyzed that there is the positive correlation between house transaction volume and price by using the SPAR Index and house transaction volume. However, what failed to clarify what a cause for positive correlation can be said to be limitation of this research. Accordingly, a further research is needed in the future on what a cause for positive correlation is.