오피스빌딩의 市場資本還元率과 投資選好에 관한 硏究

Abstract

Office building market can be divided into leasing market and asset markets can be divided into. The important indicators for leasing market are rent and vacancy rate and capitalization rate has been used as important indicator for asset market. The capitalization rate is a key indicator which shows the rate of investment return that impacts the investors’ decision making. The trends and changes of office building investment can be predicted using capitalization rate and also various economic variables. The specialized institutions in office buildings announce the capitalization rate of overall Seoul area such as CBD, GBD, and YBD every quarter. However, those are a simple average of sales price and expected rate of return. The government also announces the capitalization rate which the appraisers subjectively assessed price. In this way, the capitalization rate has evaluated by the appraisers and simply averaged the rate without concern of physical characteristics of the individual office buildings. It is hard to say that whether the right information has delivered to the investors since there was sampling error or bias to evaluate the capitalization rate. Therefore, the study of representative and average capitalization rate is needed which can be reflected to the real estate market. In this study, hedonic price index model has used to examine the characteristics of office buildings to control the differences of capitalization rate. Then, estimated the average and representative market capitalization rate and examined the relationship between macroeconomic variables using the time series. Investment principals and preferences have studied within logit model and the spread of capitalization rate which is the differences between quarterly capitalization rate that applied during the actual sales period and quarterly estimated market capitalization rate. Derived through the process of the comprehensive results of this study are as follows. First of all, through office building market capitalization rate study, the components of capitalization rate which are risk premium and expectation of rent and sales price, can be affected by the buildings where the vacancy risk, potential development site, or sales type could be the variables to the physical properties that has investigated. Second, the quarterly market capitalization rate has compared between the determinants of the average estimated coefficient of each variable by 1999.4Q as a baseline and used expected coefficient as dummy for each quarter. The result showed that the weighted average capitalization rate by gross floor area and the simply averaged the capitalization rate did not presume the exact market period. Third, in this study, with an estimated market capitalization rate and macroeconomic variables are closely related that statistically significant at the level of vacancy rates showed positive (+), and credit spreads, number of white collar employees, and the money supply showed negative (-) in the range of significant market capitalization rate. Fourth, foreign investors were sensitive to the capitalization rate and prefer to have high rate was found after the office building investment tendency analysis. Fifth, an indirect way of investing primarily used for investments are listed that sensitive to capitalization rate and high rate would be preferred but high rate preference tendency analyzed low that showed no relationship. Lastly, investment model analysis which based on the major investor showed that only cares the foreign capital’s indirect investment and direct invest way and prefers the high rate. Market myths assumed the result that foreign capital prefers the high capitalization rate but the argument of high rate preferred from direct investment was not found. However, only foreign capitalist desires to have higher rate among direct investments. The preference level of high capitalization rate identified depending on the major investor rather than investment approaches. Also, foreign capitalist cares operation cash flow more than domestic capital.