부동산정책 변화가 주택가격에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

Abstract

Housing price since 2000s was rapid increased by announcing various real estate stabilization policies such as total price liberalization and housing market stabilization methods, etc for the purpose of economic stimulus while our real estate market passed through foreign exchange crisis. The Government set forth the housing market stabilization methods, etc. and intervened into the real estate market again for stabilization of rapidly increased real estate price in this process. In spite of that, housing price showed an unstable state of temporal drop or rise, so a question about effectiveness of the real estate policy started to be suggested. Even though a problem of the present real estate market didn't result from the same phenomena nationally, the real estate policy of the Government resulted in unbalance of the real estate market between regions by setting forth various national policies if a problem was generated from any one region Positive analysis was performed through multiple regression analysis to find effects generated according to the region due to the uniform real estate policy of the Government, and the conclusion was deduced as follows. First, as a result of the positive analysis, it was found that most housing policies of the Government policies anounced from 2003 to 2007 were effective to achieve the result like the purpose of the Government in a certain portion. However, Seoul region showed that housing price seemed to become stable through temporary drop, but most policies of the Government were slightly effective, and the housing price showed a rise trend after a certain period so that a duration period of the housing policies was short. As a result of mutiple-regression analysis, the housing price was not affected by the housing polices or increased on the contrary in Seoul. Second, it was thought that there were effects of the polices in metropolitan cities by bringing price drop effect due to most policies, but the housing market showed stagnation differently from the Seoul region. This result showed that the real estate policies of the Government didn't properly contribute to stabilization of the real estate price. The 10.29 measure of many policies had the highest effect to Seoul city and the metropolitan cities, and the other policies showed slight or no effect to each region, and a factor outside the policies showed no effect to the housing price. The suggestions as follows can be deduced by the above-mentioned study. The Government should put emphasis on system reform for improving physical constitution fundamentally rather than exertion of sporadic policies for deducing immediate market response in execution of policies, and policy evaluation should be rightly performed by considering social and economic situation and regional circumstances, etc. surronding the real estate market after recognizing regional difference of the real estate market. Difference of regional effects according to execution of the real estate policy was viewed in this study. The meaning of this study could be found in the point that the real estate policy showed different effects according to the respective region, and customized policies according to the respective region are needed for solving polarization between the national capital region and the provinces in the above process.