부동산 경매시장의 매각가율과 경매가격지수 추정에 관한연구

Abstract

In the wake of enforcement of the civil execution law in 2002, the popularization in auction market was created. Its speed of growth is gradually accelerating. However, the index, by which participants in auction market can judge a situation in auction market, is the highest bid price ratio of all. This study aims to propose two indices, which show the situation of auction market. One is the 'true bid price ratio,' which supplemented problems caused by the highest bid price ratio, the single index in the current auction market. The other is the 'auction price index.' The presumed 'true bid price ratio' is index that shows a relative change in the bid price of auction market. As the 'Auction price index' shows the changing trend in bid price, we can grasp the correct situation of auction market by using two indices. The reason for having presumed the 'true bid price ratio' is because the bid price ratio, which is being used now, fails to rightly reflect a price change in market, thereby being unable to play a correct role as an index of showing the situation of auction market. First, the appraised value does not reflect price change in market due to the difference between the evaluated time and the bid time. The bid price ratio, which was calculated with this appraised value, comes to fail to correctly reflect the situation of market. Second, there are some real estates that have a risk factor in investment like defective right out of real estates in auction market. This kind of real estate is lowly priced compared to the market price. When this auction real estate is sold, the bid price ratio is distorted. So I would like to assume the true bid price ratio that supplemented two critical problems about the existing bid price ratio. The reason for presuming the auction price index is because the bid price ratio, which was presumed before, can just show a relative change in the bid price of the auction market, but fails to indicate the tendency of bid price. This implies that the bid price ratio leads to being unable to know whether the current bid price is in a bullish or bearish trend. In this sense, it is necessary for presuming the auction price index to see the tendency of bid price in auction market. To presume the true bid price ratio, the bid price ratio was assumed by using the Hedonic Price Model after correcting the appraised value with bid time, not with evaluation time by using the housing price index, as the bid data of auction apartments in Gangnam-gu, Seocho-gu, and Songpa-gu, which were sold from the 3rd quarter of 2003 to the 2nd quarter of 2009. As a result of presumption, the risk factors, which have influence upon auction bid price ratio, indicate to be lessees' number, area, auction period, and lien in Gangnam-gu, and to be lessees' number, area, and auction period in Seocho-gu. In Songpa-gu, land-separately registration, area, and auction period indicate to be risk factors. In the integration of Gangnam 3 districts, all the risk factors except priority-order lessee indicate to have negative(-) influence upon bid price ratio. From the 2nd quarter of 2005 through the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2007, the rising period of price in housing market, the existing bid price ratio indicates to be higher than the presumed new bid price ratio. On the contrary, the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008, the dropping period of price in housing market, the existing bid price ratio shows lower than the presumed new bid price ratio. The auction price index was prepared by the district and quarter with a simple-average SPAR index model by using the bid data of auction apartments in Gangnam 3 districts, which had been transacted from the 1st quarter of 2001 to the 2nd quarter of 2009, and was added the index that integrated 3 districts. Given examining index movement in each district, when setting the 1st quarter of 2001, which is the base year, to 100, the 1st quarter of 2008, which corresponds to the peak, in the case of Gangnam-gu increased by about 181.29% to 281.29. The 2nd quarter of 2008 in Seocho-gu increased by about 203.82% to 303.82. The 3rd quarter of 2007 in Songpa-gu increased by about 222.18% to 322.18. The 2nd quarter of 2008 in integration of Gangnam 3 districts increased by 194.88% to 294.88. Out of this, Songpa-gu is known to be quick in the period of reaching the top, and to be big even in the rising width. This is analyzed to have influence even upon the auction market by being concentrated the investment demand with expectation of halo effect according to new-town redevelopment, while being announced as the new-town district designation in Geoyeo and Macheon in December of 2005. Also, given examining the increasing rate year-on-year in the SPAR index and KB index of Songpa-gu, the increasing rate year-on-year in the SPAR index can be confirmed to be bigger than KB index. Especially, according to announcement of new-town district designation in Geoyeo and Macheon in 2005, the phenomenon of concentration in investment demand was revealed clearly in the SPAR index. On the other hand, in KB index, the level of reflecting the price hike can be confirmed to be low. Also, as a result of examining the changing apartment sale price index in the KB(Kookmin Bank) into quarter index, in order to compare with apartment sale price index in KB, which is price index in the general housing market, the KB index was confirmed to be lower in fluctuation of index than the SPAR index. Also, except in Gangnam-gu, the SPAR index is seen to move first with time lag in about the 1st and 2nd quarters than compared to the KB index. This suggests the possibility for which the KB index is set to be smoothing with time lag. As the 'true bid price ratio,' which was presumed in this study, is the index that supplemented problems possessed by the current highest bid price ratio, it can play a role as the index of showing relative change in bid price in auction market. The auction price index will continue to be able to be utilized as the index of showing tendency of bid price in the auction market.

Key Words : Real Estate Auction, Bid Price Ratio, Time-lag, Auction Price Index, SPAR(Sale Price Appraisal Ratio)index m