金日成 死後 北韓體制의 變化展望에 관한 硏究

Abstract

Thanks to the nuclear disarmament conferences between U. S. and Russia, the unprecedented harmonious atmosphere is rushing throughout the whole world. These global detentes, which have succeeded one after the other by the German unification, the revolutions in Eastern European countries, the Northern and Southern Yemenite unification, and the downfall of Soviet Communism, have gradually affected the Korean peninsula, the only divided country in the world. However, sticking to "Living its own way"and "self-reliance" which is the sole governing ideology in its society and which also hampers the harmony among East-West sides, North Korea has adhered to "closeness and isolation" policy against outside, which prevents the unification of 70 million Korean nation. But through the recent 5th High Level Political Conference Between South and North Korea, two countries succeeded to extract the so-called "Accord on nonaggression, reconciliation, cooperation and exchanges". This agreement shows us that there must be an internal limitation in North Korea's closeness and isolation policy. In relation to the worldwide turbulence, this paper will project how North Korea could be changed after Kim, Il-Sung, the dictator of the country, dies, based on many relevant materials and data. Chapter 2 provides a foundation for the changeability of the North Korean society by examining the characteristics and the establishment steps of dictator Kim's governing structure since the division of Korean peninsula. Chapter 3 states, (1) the internal matters in question in North Korea, (2) the effect on the opening of North Korea toward the world by post cold-war, the new global order, the neighbor's revolution and changing foreign policies toward the country, (3) the effect on the North Korean Society by south Korea's Nordpolitik and South-North Korea's simultaneous entrance into United Nations. Throughout this chapter we can see the effect on North Korea by the turbulent restructuring order of the world since the mid 1980's. Chapter 4, the main body of this paper, tells how North Korea would be changed after dictator Kim's death, with aspects based on North Korea's inner/ outer changing factors and the revolution models of the other communist countries such as North Korea. In North Korea, it is expected that big changes in governing structure are going to occur after the death of dictator Kim. There are too informal many arguments viewpoints fall into two approaches following ; long/medium-term view and short-term view. Although his eldest son (Kim Joug-Il) will grasp the regime after dictator Kim's death and go forward with "self-reliance" adhesively, there is no choice for North Korea to open towards and improve its relationship with Western countries, pressure put out from Russia and China, the severe economic dullness, and the appalling ressults out of the international isolation. As a result, in order to maintain its governing power, Jong Il Kim's North Korean government must introduce the evolutionary ways such as Titoism, Libermanism and Honekei-styled revolution, which have been shown in other communist countries. From these points of view, it is agreed that North Korea will open toward the world and take a step in its revolution. It is only a matter of between time and distance, therefore, we should consider the appropriate countermeasures for South Korea as follows : (1) We should prepare the measure that North Korea is willing to go forward with the peace conference table of its own accord. South-North Korea's simultaneous entrance into UN can be considered the reducing factor against North Korea's provocative acts. Therefore, we should keep in mind to respect North Korea's self-conceit, to invite it in our line as a another major part of our nation and to help it go forward as a responsible partner in the international world. (2) Because there is only a small chance of military invasion by North Korea, we should make stronger countermeasures against North Korea's military invasion. For this reason, we should constantly exert our efforts on the economic development and the promotion of democracy. (3) Finally, we should be concerned with our advance preparation and the unificaiton for our future after the unification.