Gravity model of Agriculture. In case of Uzbekistan

Abstract

Purpose of my dissertation is analyzing Uzbekistan’s bilateral trade relationships on agriculture part, trade flow with Uzbekistan’s main 11 trade partner countries (Belarus, China, Germany, Japan Kazakhstan, South Korea, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkey, Ukraine) using gravity model. In order to get most alternative positive effects on bilateral trade flow in agriculture section of trading, different estimation test are conducted by using gravity model regressions: OLS (ordinary least squares, fixed model, random effect and comparing them by taking another tests fixed&ols and fixed&random. As a final result that fixed model estimation was most effective result among them. That is fact that Uzbek agricultural exports to CIS (commonwealth of independent states) countries are more effective and correlated with size of countries, population or sharing common borders, cultural similarity or common language, less transportation time or cost.

For this purpose, data is collected from 2000 to 2020 in panel data form (based on secondary data with time series). Main purpose of my dissertation is indicating and estimating market size and trade volume of Uzbekistan in agricultural section with its allies based on collected data. After finalizing results, working on trade suggestions if there is more room for trade growth.