不實企業判斷指標로서 現金흐름 情報의 유용성에 관한 實證的 硏究

Abstract

Insolvency of an enterprise will cause serious problems to the persons concerned, to society and to economy because the enterprise is the means and goals of life and at the same time a foundation of society. Thus, if it or its potential possibility can be estimated, in spite of becoming insolvent enterprises be estimated, in spite of becoming insolvent enterprises the economic problems caused from the insolvency of enterprises could be minimized necessary measures are taken to persons concerned prepare. The objective of this study is to examine the positive studies on insolvency of enterprises in the nation including Altman's study of 1968 based on these problems in order to verify the misappropriate use of the information of cash flow of insolvent enterprises and normal enterprises by making a positive comparative study on existing financial ratio and extracting a fan shape distinction function. The positive studies in the nation were extracted from the listed enterprises which went belly up between 1991 and 1996 to examine objectively and put faith on their information. 40 insolvent enterprises for analysis sample and 40 normal enterprises for relative sample were chosen from those listed insolvent enterprises to figure out if the information on cash flow furnished from a cash flow table would be more useful to information user than that from the conventional financial ratio, which has been so far used. The results of the study are as follows : 1. Cash flow from sales and Cash flow ratio related to Cash flow from financial management were accepted, but Cash flow ratio from investment was not accepted inview of the result analyed below 5% of attentive level between two groups, insolvent and normal enterprises in order to verify the attentiveness on cash flow information in the course of choosing variables of insolvent estimate sample. 2. All the five variables showed above 75% of estimation in view of the results achieved by analyzing single variable based on dual classification in order to verify the estimation on CFO related ratio among attentive CFO and CFI related ratios when the average difference between two groups were verified. 3. Two CFO related ratios, CFO/sales and CFO/total asset, and two CFI related ratios, CFI/owned capital and CFI/total liabilities were remained excluding 6 out of 10 variables which resulted from the fan shape distinction function for estimating insolvent enterprises based on the information on cash flow with selected variables after attentive verification by analyzing these single variable were made. And also 76.79% and 79.17% of estimation were revealed through printing out the estimation of 66.7% analysis sample and 33.3% verifying sample that were extracted at random from the input materials by the program setting. 4. The estimation from the distinction function based on the information of cash flow revealed superior to that of conventional financial ratio with the percentage of estimation in Altman model and in the distinction function from cash flow from a year, two years and three yeas before insolvency as 67.5% and 75%, 63.75% and 71.25%, and 63.75% and 72.97% respectively when estimation in between Altman model and the distinction function was compared by the dual classification in order to verify the distinction function extracted from the information of cash flow.